MSCI Analysis — TradeApes

MSCI Inc. (MSCI)

Technology Diversified Services

$573.01 close · Sep 05, 2026

Model Divergence 64 Health · Healthy

Below 50 & 200 SMA

52W -11.0% from High

Methodology Breakdown

Mature

The market price on this stock implies growth our normalized base can't support, so we're not putting a single fair-value dollar on it. At today's price the market is implying roughly 50% annual free-cash-flow growth in our DCF — well outside what the normalized base supports. The individual method outputs are shown below for transparency.

Method	Value	Role
DCF (Base Case)	$188.52	COMPUTED
DCF (TTM-anchored)	$238.05	COMPUTED
Peer Multiples	$217.10	COMPUTED
Earnings Power Value	$43.85	COMPUTED
Earnings Anchor	$299.52	COMPUTED
Cash Floor	$3.42	COMPUTED

Computed — every method is shown for transparency; none was published as our estimate for this stock.

📈

Multiple compressed z = -1.67

EV/EBITDA (25.3×) is 1.67 std deviations below its 2-year average

Apr 21

Health Score

Out of 100

Healthy

Pillar Scores

Financial Strength

Operating Trend

Valuation

Overvalued 43

Capital Allocation

Risk Management

Positives

↑ ROIC level + trend +3.6

↑ free-cash-flow margin +3.6

↑ FCF margin + growth +4.8

Concerns

↓ debt trend (no impairment data) -0.9

↓ beta + annualized volatility -1.0

↓ ev_to_ebitda vs sector peers -2.0

Signal contribution: +27.5 from strengths -4.5 from concerns

Health Score Trend 9 snapshots

Financials

TTM Financials

Revenue ?Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months.	3.33B
Gross Profit ?Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency.	—
Operating Income ?Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes.	1.86B
Net Income ?Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue.	1.36B
Free Cash Flow ?Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability.	1.60B
EBITDA ?Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences.	1.88B
Total Debt ?Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk.	6.38B
Cash & Equivalents ?Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion.	356.4M

Valuation

Market Cap	41.77B
Enterprise Value	47.96B
EV / Revenue	14.4x
EV / EBITDA	25.5x
P/E (TTM)	30.8x
Forward P/E (extrapolated)	15.9x
PEG	0.7x
P/FCF	26.1x
FCF Yield	3.8%

EV/EBITDA vs history — 53% percentile (mid-range)

CheapMidExpensive

EV/Sales vs history — 53% percentile (mid-range)

CheapMidExpensive

DCF Fair Value Range (base CAGR: 15.6%)

Bear

$370.29

Base

$614.57

Bull

$975.65

Bear $370 Current $573.01 (in range) Bull $976

Market is pricing in 14.5% FCF growth annually — base model assumes 15.6%

Key Metrics

Gross Margin ?Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better.	—
EBITDA Margin ?EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries.	56.4%
Net Margin ?Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for.	40.7%
FCF Margin ?Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash.	47.9%
Revenue Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong.	11.6%
Net Income Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality.	15.2%
Piotroski F-Score ?Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed.	7 / 9
Altman Z-Score ?Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies.	0.79

Community Sentiment

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Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q2 '26	Q1 '26	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '24	Q4 '23	Q3 '23
Revenue ?Total quarterly sales from primary business operations.	867.0M	850.8M	822.5M	793.4M	772.7M	745.8M	743.5M	724.7M	707.9M	680.0M	690.1M	625.4M
Gross Profit ?Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold.	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating Income ?Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT).	487.5M	456.9M	463.6M	447.7M	425.3M	377.0M	405.2M	401.3M	382.6M	339.4M	370.7M	353.3M
Net Income ?Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes.	342.0M	406.0M	284.6M	325.4M	303.7M	288.6M	305.5M	280.9M	266.8M	256.0M	403.4M	259.7M
FCF ?Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures.	359.8M	304.0M	488.7M	445.4M	324.9M	290.1M	416.4M	415.0M	340.6M	295.9M	385.1M	287.6M

Revenue & Free Cash Flow

Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band

Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.