WDC Analysis — TradeApes

WESTERN DIGITAL CORP (WDC)

Technology Computer Hardware

$467.46 close · Sep 05, 2026

Model Divergence 66 Health · Healthy

Above 200 SMA

52W -37.4% from High

Methodology Breakdown

Mature

The market price on this stock implies growth our normalized base can't support, so we're not putting a single fair-value dollar on it. At today's price the market is implying roughly 50% annual free-cash-flow growth in our DCF — well outside what the normalized base supports. The individual method outputs are shown below for transparency.

Method	Value	Role
Peer Multiples	$103.60	COMPUTED
Earnings Power Value	$8.63	COMPUTED
Book Value Anchor	$72.10	COMPUTED
Earnings Anchor	$67.44	COMPUTED
Cash Floor	$2.86	COMPUTED
NAV Anchor	$72.10	COMPUTED

Computed — every method is shown for transparency; none was published as our estimate for this stock.

⚠️

Overvalued +152.6%

Market cap (180.91B) is 152.6% above the bull-case DCF fair value (71.61B)

Sep 05

Health Score

Out of 100

Healthy

Pillar Scores

Financial Strength

Operating Trend

Valuation

Overvalued 33

Capital Allocation

Risk Management

Positives

↑ FCF margin + growth +4.4

↑ free-cash-flow margin +4.0

↑ operating-margin level (no history) +3.2

Concerns

↓ ev_to_ebitda vs sector peers -6.1

↓ earnings yield (absolute) -1.4

↓ net share-count change -1.9

Signal contribution: +34.0 from strengths -12.7 from concerns

Health Score Trend 8 snapshots

Cross-Check: Greenblatt Magic Formula

✓ Aligned

Earnings Yield

1.3%

Rank 1109 / 1256

Return on Capital

70.8%

Rank 398 / 1256

Combined Rank

32th pctl

1256 companies ranked

Based on Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula methodology. Not investment advice.

Financials

TTM Financials

Revenue ?Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months.	6.35B
Gross Profit ?Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency.	3.06B
Operating Income ?Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes.	2.10B
Net Income ?Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue.	5.05B
Free Cash Flow ?Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability.	3.51B
EBITDA ?Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences.	2.47B
Total Debt ?Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk.	1.05B
Cash & Equivalents ?Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion.	1.58B

Valuation

Market Cap	180.91B
Enterprise Value	180.52B
EV / Revenue	28.4x
EV / EBITDA	73.0x
P/E (TTM)	35.8x
Forward P/E (extrapolated)	31.0x
PEG	0.2x
P/FCF	51.5x
FCF Yield	1.9%

EV/EBITDA vs history — 27% percentile (historically cheap)

CheapMidExpensive

EV/Sales vs history — 84% percentile (historically expensive)

CheapMidExpensive

P/Book vs history — 42% percentile (mid-range)

CheapMidExpensive

DCF Fair Value Range (base CAGR: 2.9%)

Bear

$159.74

Base

$170.30

Bull

$185.03

Bear $160 Current $467.46 (above range) Bull $185

Market is pricing in 21.0% FCF growth annually — base model assumes 2.9%

Key Metrics

Gross Margin ?Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better.	48.1%
EBITDA Margin ?EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries.	38.9%
Net Margin ?Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for.	79.4%
FCF Margin ?Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash.	55.3%
Revenue Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong.	-33.3%
Net Income Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality.	167.2%
Piotroski F-Score ?Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed.	6 / 9
Altman Z-Score ?Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies.	3.04

Community Sentiment

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Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q '26	Q3 '26	Q2 '26	Q1 '26	Q '25	Q '25	Q2 '26	Q1 '26	Q '25	Q3 '24	Q2 '24	Q1 '24
Revenue ?Total quarterly sales from primary business operations.	—	3.34B	3.02B	—	2.61B	2.29B	2.41B	2.21B	2.00B	1.75B	1.37B	1.19B
Gross Profit ?Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold.	—	1.68B	1.38B	—	1.07B	912.0M	907.0M	806.0M	697.0M	519.0M	313.0M	244.0M
Operating Income ?Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT).	—	1.19B	908.0M	—	—	760.0M	560.0M	334.0M	—	94.0M	-210.0M	-596.0M
Net Income ?Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes.	—	3.21B	1.84B	—	282.0M	520.0M	594.0M	493.0M	39.0M	135.0M	-287.0M	-685.0M
FCF ?Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures.	1.28B	978.0M	653.0M	599.0M	675.0M	379.0M	287.0M	-62.0M	250.0M	-39.0M	-242.0M	-750.0M

Revenue & Free Cash Flow

Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band

Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.