NVDA Analysis — TradeApes

NVIDIA CORP (NVDA)

Technology Semiconductors

$230.36 close · Sep 05, 2026

Overvalued (Low) Est. $40.42–$279.33 74 Health · Healthy

Above 50 & 200 SMA

52W Near High

Methodology Breakdown

Mature

Our Estimate

$40.42 – $279.33 Wide range

Low confidence: our methods span $40.42–$279.33, so we lean on the range rather than a single number. Today's price $220.78 sits within it.

Method	Value	Role
DCF (Base Case)	$52.35	IN ESTIMATE
DCF (TTM-anchored)	$506.30	IN ESTIMATE
Peer Multiples	$24.53	IN ESTIMATE
Earnings Power Value	$2.66	CROSS-CHECK
Book Value Anchor	$50.94	CROSS-CHECK
Earnings Anchor	$49.08	CROSS-CHECK
Cash Floor	$0.65	CROSS-CHECK
NAV Anchor	$50.94	CROSS-CHECK

In estimate — combined into our number · Cross-check — computed for context, not counted

The methods agree on direction (under- or over-valued) but their dollar values diverge, so we show a range rather than one number.

📈

Multiple compressed z = -1.53

EV/EBITDA (25.4×) is 1.53 std deviations below its 2-year average

Aug 27

Health Score

Out of 100

Healthy

Pillar Scores

Financial Strength

Operating Trend

Valuation

Overvalued 41

Capital Allocation

Risk Management

Positives

↑ revenue YoY + 3yr CAGR +9.0

↑ corrected ROIC (NOPAT / invested capital) +3.5

↑ free-cash-flow margin +3.6

Concerns

↓ ev_to_sales vs sector peers -4.6

↓ accruals ratio -1.6

↓ debt trend (no impairment data) -0.6

Signal contribution: +53.7 from strengths -9.5 from concerns

Health Score Trend 9 snapshots

Cross-Check: Greenblatt Magic Formula

✓ Aligned

Earnings Yield

3.2%

Rank 855 / 1256

Return on Capital

139.5%

Rank 204 / 1256

Combined Rank

57th pctl

1256 companies ranked

Based on Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula methodology. Not investment advice.

Financials

TTM Financials

Revenue ?Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months.	302.97B
Gross Profit ?Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency.	226.24B
Operating Income ?Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes.	197.58B
Net Income ?Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue.	192.88B
Free Cash Flow ?Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability.	133.44B
EBITDA ?Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences.	201.27B
Total Debt ?Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk.	33.37B
Cash & Equivalents ?Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion.	22.44B

Valuation

Market Cap	5594.29B
Enterprise Value	5610.71B
EV / Revenue	18.5x
EV / EBITDA	27.9x
P/E (TTM)	29.0x
Forward P/E (extrapolated)	13.9x
PEG	0.1x
P/FCF	41.9x
FCF Yield	2.4%

EV/EBITDA vs history — 4% percentile (historically cheap)

CheapMidExpensive

EV/Sales vs history — 5% percentile (historically cheap)

CheapMidExpensive

P/Book vs history — 7% percentile (historically cheap)

CheapMidExpensive

DCF Fair Value Range (base CAGR: 27.6%)

Bear

$235.09

Base

$501.20

Bull

$1,012.02

Bear $235 Current $230.36 (below range) Bull $1,012

Market is pricing in 13.4% FCF growth annually — base model assumes 27.6%

Key Metrics

Gross Margin ?Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better.	74.7%
EBITDA Margin ?EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries.	66.4%
Net Margin ?Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for.	63.7%
FCF Margin ?Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash.	44.0%
Revenue Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong.	83.4%
Net Income Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality.	122.7%
Piotroski F-Score ?Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed.	5 / 9
Altman Z-Score ?Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies.	6.07

Community Sentiment

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Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q2 '27	Q1 '27	Q4 '26	Q3 '26	Q2 '26	Q1 '26	Q4 '26	Q3 '25	Q2 '26	Q1 '25	Q4 '24	Q3 '24
Revenue ?Total quarterly sales from primary business operations.	96.22B	81.62B	68.13B	57.01B	46.74B	44.06B	39.33B	35.08B	30.04B	26.04B	22.10B	18.12B
Gross Profit ?Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold.	72.14B	61.16B	51.09B	41.85B	33.85B	26.67B	28.72B	26.16B	22.57B	20.41B	16.79B	13.40B
Operating Income ?Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT).	63.73B	53.54B	44.30B	36.01B	28.44B	21.64B	24.03B	21.87B	18.64B	16.91B	13.62B	10.42B
Net Income ?Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes.	59.69B	58.32B	42.96B	31.91B	26.42B	18.78B	22.09B	19.31B	16.60B	14.88B	12.29B	9.24B
FCF ?Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures.	23.98B	49.24B	36.16B	24.06B	14.67B	27.01B	16.25B	17.63B	14.49B	15.20B	11.33B	7.33B

Revenue & Free Cash Flow

Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band

Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.