SMTC Analysis — TradeApes

SEMTECH CORP (SMTC)

Technology Semiconductors

$147.89 close · Sep 05, 2026

Inconclusive 45 Health · Mixed

Above 50 & 200 SMA

52W -15.4% from High

Methodology Breakdown

Mature

Our methods didn't converge on a number we'd stand behind here, so rather than publish false precision we show what each approach computed below and what the market is implying.

Method	Value	Role
Peer Multiples	$19.10	COMPUTED
Book Value Anchor	$31.59	COMPUTED
Cash Floor	$1.17	COMPUTED
NAV Anchor	$31.59	COMPUTED

Computed — every method is shown for transparency; none was published as our estimate for this stock.

⚠️

Multiple stretched z = +1.65

EV/EBITDA (316.4×) is 1.65 std deviations above its 2-year average

Jul 01

Health Score

Out of 100

Mixed

Pillar Scores

Financial Strength

Operating Trend

Valuation

Overvalued 15

Capital Allocation

Risk Management

Positives

↑ operating-margin trend + inflection +5.5

↑ margin expansion +2.2

↑ free-cash-flow margin +3.5

Concerns

↓ ev_to_ebitda vs sector peers -7.6

↓ earnings yield (absolute) -1.6

↓ net debt / EBITDA -3.2

Signal contribution: +20.6 from strengths -26.8 from concerns

Health Score Trend 8 snapshots

Cross-Check: Greenblatt Magic Formula

⚠ Divergent

Earnings Yield

0.4%

Rank 1203 / 1256

Return on Capital

8.6%

Rank 1130 / 1256

Combined Rank

6th pctl

1256 companies ranked

Our composite ranks this company higher than the Magic Formula. This is likely because our model credits growth trajectory, improving margins, or momentum signals that the Magic Formula's static snapshot does not capture.

Based on Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula methodology. Not investment advice.

Financials

TTM Financials

Revenue ?Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months.	1.09B
Gross Profit ?Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency.	562.3M
Operating Income ?Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes.	22.4M
Net Income ?Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue.	-33.2M
Free Cash Flow ?Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability.	173.2M
EBITDA ?Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences.	51.3M
Total Debt ?Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk.	492.0M
Cash & Equivalents ?Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion.	163.3M

Valuation

Market Cap	14.50B
Enterprise Value	14.85B
EV / Revenue	13.6x
EV / EBITDA	289.7x
P/E (TTM)	-437.2x
Forward P/E	—
PEG	—
P/FCF	83.7x
FCF Yield	1.2%

EV/EBITDA vs history — 80% percentile (historically expensive)

CheapMidExpensive

EV/Sales vs history — 83% percentile (historically expensive)

CheapMidExpensive

P/Book vs history — 80% percentile (historically expensive)

CheapMidExpensive

DCF Fair Value Range (base CAGR: 4.7%)

Bear

$23.63

Base

$27.27

Bull

$31.67

Bear $24 Current $147.89 (above range) Bull $32

Market is pricing in 34.6% FCF growth annually — base model assumes 4.7%

Key Metrics

Gross Margin ?Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better.	51.6%
EBITDA Margin ?EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries.	4.7%
Net Margin ?Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for.	-3.0%
FCF Margin ?Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash.	15.9%
Revenue Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong.	14.2%
Net Income Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality.	72.2%
Piotroski F-Score ?Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed.	6 / 9
Altman Z-Score ?Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies.	—

Community Sentiment

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Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q1 '27	Q4 '26	Q3 '26	Q2 '26	Q1 '26	Q4 '26	Q3 '26	Q2 '26	Q1 '26	Q4 '26	Q3 '25	Q2 '25
Revenue ?Total quarterly sales from primary business operations.	291.0M	274.4M	267.0M	257.6M	251.1M	251.0M	236.8M	215.4M	206.1M	192.9M	200.9M	238.4M
Gross Profit ?Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold.	151.5M	138.3M	138.5M	134.1M	131.3M	130.5M	121.0M	105.5M	99.6M	-$390,000	93.0M	100.7M
Operating Income ?Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT).	25.8M	-18.3M	31.1M	-16.2M	36.0M	21.2M	17.8M	7.8M	3.1M	-620.0M	-12.4M	-300.1M
Net Income ?Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes.	26.6M	-29.8M	-2.9M	-27.1M	19.3M	39.1M	-7.6M	-170.3M	-23.2M	-642.4M	-38.3M	-382.0M
FCF ?Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures.	28.0M	59.1M	44.6M	41.5M	26.2M	30.9M	29.1M	-8.4M	-1.4M	12.2M	-12.4M	-18.9M

Revenue & Free Cash Flow

Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band

Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.