UNP Analysis — TradeApes

UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP)

Industrials

$250.35 close · Apr 09, 2026

↑ Mild Premium (29/100)

Health Score

Out of 100

Mixed

Pillar Scores

Financial Strength 50

Operating Trend 55

Valuation 50

Capital Allocation 55

Risk 50

Positives

↑ Free cash flow positive — business generates real spendable cash +2.5

↑ Decent ROIC — 10–20%, solid return on invested capital +1.3

↑ Low stock compensation — SBC below 3% of revenue +0.8

Concerns

↓ Altman Z-Score in distress zone — elevated bankruptcy risk -3.0

↓ Weak liquidity — current assets below current liabilities -2.5

Signal contribution: +4.6 from strengths -5.5 from concerns

Health Score Trend 8 snapshots

Financials

TTM Financials

Revenue ?Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months.	24.51B
Gross Profit ?Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency.	—
Operating Income ?Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes.	9.85B
Net Income ?Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue.	7.14B
Free Cash Flow ?Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability.	5.50B
EBITDA ?Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences.	12.31B
Total Debt ?Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk.	31.81B
Cash & Equivalents ?Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion.	1.27B

Valuation

Market Cap	149.18B
Enterprise Value	179.73B
EV / Revenue	7.3x
EV / EBITDA	14.6x
P/E (TTM)	20.9x
Forward P/E (extrapolated)	11.1x
PEG	1.4x
P/FCF	27.1x
FCF Yield	3.7%

DCF Fair Value Range (base CAGR: 11.4%)

Bear

$151.01

Base

$228.85

Bull

$333.62

Bear $151 Current $250.35 (in range) Bull $334

Market is pricing in 12.8% FCF growth annually — base model assumes 11.4%

Key Metrics

Gross Margin ?Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better.	—
EBITDA Margin ?EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries.	50.2%
Net Margin ?Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for.	29.1%
FCF Margin ?Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash.	22.4%
Revenue Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong.	1.1%
Net Income Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality.	5.8%
Piotroski F-Score ?Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed.	6 / 9
Altman Z-Score ?Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies.	1.40

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Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '25	Q3 '24	Q2 '24	Q1 '24	Q4 '23	Q3 '24	Q2 '24	Q1 '24
Revenue ?Total quarterly sales from primary business operations.	6.09B	6.24B	6.15B	6.03B	6.12B	6.09B	6.01B	6.03B	6.16B	5.94B	5.96B	6.06B
Gross Profit ?Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold.	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating Income ?Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT).	2.40B	2.55B	2.53B	2.37B	2.53B	2.42B	2.40B	2.37B	2.41B	2.18B	2.20B	2.29B
Net Income ?Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes.	1.85B	1.79B	1.88B	1.63B	1.76B	1.67B	1.67B	1.64B	1.65B	1.53B	1.57B	1.63B
FCF ?Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures.	4.20B	—	—	1.30B	4.57B	—	—	1.33B	3.71B	—	—	1.07B

Revenue & Free Cash Flow

Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band

Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.