CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG)
Consumer Cyclical
$33.16
close · Apr 05, 2026
↓
Undervalued
(100/100)
Health Score
Health Score
68
Out of 100
Healthy
Pillar Scores
Financial Strength
80
Operating Trend
60
Valuation
60
Capital Allocation
70
Risk
70
Positives
↑
Historically cheap — EV/EBITDA in bottom 25% of its 5-year range
+5.0
↑
Net cash position — more cash on hand than total debt
+3.8
↑
Free cash flow positive — business generates real spendable cash
+2.5
Concerns
↓
High P/E — 25–45×, growth premium already priced in
-2.5
↓
Altman Z-Score in grey zone — uncertain financial stability
-1.0
Signal contribution:
+18.2 from strengths
-3.5 from concerns
Health Score Trend
8 snapshots
Financials
TTM Financials
| Revenue Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months. | 11.93B |
| Gross Profit Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency. | — |
| Operating Income Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes. | 1.94B |
| Net Income Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue. | 1.54B |
| Free Cash Flow Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability. | 1.45B |
| EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences. | 2.30B |
| Total Debt Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk. | $0 |
| Cash & Equivalents Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion. | 350.5M |
Valuation
| Market Cap | 44.52B |
| Enterprise Value | 44.17B |
| EV / Revenue | 3.7x |
| EV / EBITDA | 19.2x |
| P/E (TTM) | 29.0x |
| Forward P/E (extrapolated) | 15.9x |
| PEG | 6.0x |
| P/FCF | 30.8x |
| FCF Yield | 3.3% |
EV/EBITDA vs history — 6% percentile
(historically cheap)
CheapMidExpensive
EV/Sales vs history — 5% percentile
(historically cheap)
CheapMidExpensive
P/Book vs history — 19% percentile
(historically cheap)
CheapMidExpensive
DCF Fair Value Range
(base CAGR: 22.4%)
Bear
$27.29
Base
$49.71
Bull
$88.10
Bear $27
Current $33.16
(in range)
Bull $88
Market is pricing in
14.8% FCF growth
annually — base model assumes 22.4%
Key Metrics
| Gross Margin Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better. | — |
| EBITDA Margin EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries. | 19.3% |
| Net Margin Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for. | 12.9% |
| FCF Margin Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash. | 12.1% |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong. | 5.4% |
| Net Income Growth (YoY) Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality. | 0.1% |
| Piotroski F-Score Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed. | 7 / 9 |
| Altman Z-Score Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies. | 2.79 |
Community Sentiment
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Quarterly Financials
| Metric | Q4 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q1 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q1 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q3 '24 | Q2 '24 | Q1 '24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Total quarterly sales from primary business operations. | 2.98B | 3.00B | 3.06B | 2.88B | 2.85B | 2.79B | 2.97B | 2.70B | 2.52B | 2.47B | 2.51B | 2.37B |
| Gross Profit Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold. | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT). | 420.3M | 477.2M | 559.1M | 479.3M | 415.7M | 473.3M | 586.1M | 441.3M | 363.4M | 395.0M | 431.8M | 367.6M |
| Net Income Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes. | 330.9M | 382.1M | 436.1M | 386.6M | 331.8M | 387.4M | 455.7M | 359.3M | 282.1M | 313.2M | 341.8M | 291.6M |
| FCF Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures. | 1.04B | — | — | 412.3M | 1.07B | — | — | 436.5M | 888.1M | — | — | 334.7M |
Revenue & Free Cash Flow
Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band
Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute
investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data.
Always do your own research before making investment decisions.