DG Analysis — TradeApes

DOLLAR GENERAL CORP (DG)

Consumer Cyclical Discount Stores

$133.21 close · Sep 05, 2026

Fair Value (High) Est. $143.37 62 Health · Healthy

Above 50 & 200 SMA

52W -14.7% from High

Methodology Breakdown

Mature

Our Estimate

$143.37 High confidence

Equal-weighted blend of 2 independent methods, which span $142.33–$144.41. Current price $126.75 is below our estimate.

Method	Value	Role
DCF (Base Case)	$145.51	IN ESTIMATE
DCF (TTM-anchored)	$143.32	IN ESTIMATE
Peer Multiples	$142.33	IN ESTIMATE
Earnings Power Value	$84.24	CROSS-CHECK
Book Value Anchor	$77.64	CROSS-CHECK
Earnings Anchor	$149.23	CROSS-CHECK
Cash Floor	$5.02	CROSS-CHECK
NAV Anchor	$77.64	CROSS-CHECK

In estimate — combined into our number · Cross-check — computed for context, not counted

📈

Undervalued -39.0%

Market cap (29.51B) is 39.0% below the bear-case DCF fair value (48.40B)

Sep 05

Health Score

Out of 100

Healthy

Pillar Scores

Financial Strength

Operating Trend

Valuation

Fair value 61

Capital Allocation

Risk Management

Positives

↑ free-cash-flow yield +3.9

↑ leverage + near-term maturities +1.5

↑ net debt / EBITDA +3.5

Concerns

↓ current + quick ratio -1.2

↓ Piotroski F (0–9) -0.7

↓ multiple vs own 5-yr history -1.5

Signal contribution: +21.3 from strengths -3.4 from concerns

Health Score Trend 8 snapshots

Cross-Check: Greenblatt Magic Formula

⚠ Divergent

Earnings Yield

9.0%

Rank 208 / 1256

Return on Capital

235.3%

Rank 130 / 1256

Combined Rank

96th pctl

1256 companies ranked

Magic Formula ranks this company higher than our composite. Our lower score is likely driven by factors the Magic Formula does not assess: cash flow quality, balance sheet risk, trend momentum, or sentiment signals.

Based on Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula methodology. Not investment advice.

Financials

TTM Financials

Revenue ?Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months.	43.64B
Gross Profit ?Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency.	13.60B
Operating Income ?Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes.	2.44B
Net Income ?Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue.	1.70B
Free Cash Flow ?Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability.	3.16B
EBITDA ?Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences.	3.52B
Total Debt ?Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk.	—
Cash & Equivalents ?Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion.	1.59B

Valuation

Market Cap	29.51B
Enterprise Value	39.12B
EV / Revenue	0.9x
EV / EBITDA	11.1x
P/E (TTM)	17.3x
Forward P/E (extrapolated)	8.1x
PEG	0.2x
P/FCF	9.3x
FCF Yield	10.7%

EV/EBITDA vs history — 66% percentile (mid-range)

CheapMidExpensive

EV/Sales vs history — 85% percentile (historically expensive)

CheapMidExpensive

P/Book vs history — 78% percentile (historically expensive)

CheapMidExpensive

DCF Fair Value Range (base CAGR: 11.2%)

Bear

$218.51

Base

$314.19

Bull

$441.73

Bear $219 Current $133.21 (below range) Bull $442

Market is pricing in -2.6% FCF growth annually — base model assumes 11.2%

Key Metrics

Gross Margin ?Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better.	31.2%
EBITDA Margin ?EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries.	8.1%
Net Margin ?Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for.	3.9%
FCF Margin ?Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash.	7.2%
Revenue Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong.	4.8%
Net Income Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality.	43.0%
Piotroski F-Score ?Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed.	6 / 9
Altman Z-Score ?Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies.	2.31

Community Sentiment

Not enough ratings yet.
Be the first to rate this company below.

Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q2 '26	Q1 '26	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '23	Q3 '23
Revenue ?Total quarterly sales from primary business operations.	11.29B	10.79B	10.91B	10.65B	10.73B	10.44B	10.30B	10.18B	10.21B	9.91B	9.86B	9.69B
Gross Profit ?Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold.	3.68B	3.41B	3.32B	3.18B	3.36B	3.23B	3.03B	2.94B	3.06B	2.99B	2.91B	2.81B
Operating Income ?Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT).	769.2M	638.5M	606.3M	425.9M	595.4M	576.1M	294.2M	323.8M	550.0M	546.1M	579.7M	433.5M
Net Income ?Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes.	550.3M	444.1M	426.3M	282.7M	411.4M	391.9M	191.2M	196.5M	374.2M	363.3M	401.8M	276.2M
FCF ?Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures.	754.2M	595.9M	772.0M	1.04B	979.6M	718.0M	821.3M	554.8M	994.1M	534.9M	942.4M	746.1M

Revenue & Free Cash Flow

Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band

Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.

Want to track DG in your own watchlist?

Create a free account to save companies, refresh fundamentals on demand, and record your investment thesis.

Get stocks like DG in your inbox every Sunday

11 sector-leading stocks delivered to your inbox every Sunday. Free.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.