MCD Analysis — TradeApes

MCDONALDS CORP (MCD)

Consumer Cyclical Restaurants

$267.64 close · Jul 21, 2026

Under Review 66 Health · Healthy

Below 50 & 200 SMA

52W -22.3% from High

Methodology Breakdown

The universal SanityFloor caught this output. Most often this means an archetype routing mismatch upstream — the model's mechanical output is structurally implausible (fair value below cash, or wildly above price). Refusing to surface a number rather than publishing a wrong one.

Method	Value	Role
DCF (Base Case)	$419,605,542.32	REFERENCE
DCF (TTM-anchored)	$419,605,542.32	REFERENCE
Peer Multiples	$188,505,798.53	REFERENCE
Earnings Power Value	$84,941,368.84	REFERENCE
Earnings Anchor	$307,079,574.21	REFERENCE
Cash Floor	$1,147,862.65	REFERENCE

Verdict basis:


              implausible_blowup

📈

Multiple compressed z = -1.61

EV/EBITDA (4.1×) is 1.61 std deviations below its 2-year average

Jun 03

Health Score

Out of 100

Healthy

Pillar Scores

Financial Strength 60

Operating Trend 60

Valuation 80

Capital Allocation 55

Risk Management 80

Positives

↑ Historically cheap — EV/EBITDA in bottom 25% of its 5-year range +5.0

↑ Free cash flow positive — business generates real spendable cash +2.5

↑ High ROIC — above 20%, excellent return on invested capital +2.5

Concerns

↓ Piotroski F-Score 0–3 — multiple financial weakness signals -1.3

Signal contribution: +14.6 from strengths -1.3 from concerns

Health Score Trend 8 snapshots

Financials

TTM Financials

Revenue ?Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months.	27.45B
Gross Profit ?Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency.	—
Operating Income ?Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes.	12.70B
Net Income ?Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue.	8.68B
Free Cash Flow ?Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability.	7.04B
EBITDA ?Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences.	13.16B
Total Debt ?Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk.	40.11B
Cash & Equivalents ?Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion.	1.17B

Valuation

Market Cap	$190,961
Enterprise Value	53.71B
EV / Revenue	2.0x
EV / EBITDA	4.1x
P/E (TTM)	0.0x
Forward P/E (extrapolated)	12.0x
PEG	1.7x
P/FCF	0.0x
FCF Yield	—

EV/EBITDA vs history — 0% percentile (historically cheap)

CheapMidExpensive

Relative Valuation

Using relative multiples

EV / Revenue

2.0x

Key Metrics

Gross Margin ?Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better.	—
EBITDA Margin ?EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries.	47.9%
Net Margin ?Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for.	31.6%
FCF Margin ?Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash.	25.6%
Revenue Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong.	6.8%
Net Income Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality.	6.3%
Piotroski F-Score ?Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed.	5 / 9
Altman Z-Score ?Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies.	—

Community Sentiment

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Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q1 '26	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '23	Q3 '24	Q2 '24
Revenue ?Total quarterly sales from primary business operations.	6.52B	7.01B	7.08B	6.84B	5.96B	6.39B	6.87B	6.49B	6.17B	6.41B	6.69B	6.50B
Gross Profit ?Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold.	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating Income ?Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT).	2.95B	3.16B	3.36B	3.23B	2.65B	2.87B	3.19B	2.92B	2.74B	2.80B	3.21B	3.10B
Net Income ?Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes.	1.98B	2.16B	2.28B	2.25B	1.87B	2.02B	2.26B	2.02B	1.93B	2.04B	2.32B	2.31B
FCF ?Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures.	1.73B	1.64B	2.42B	1.25B	1.88B	1.83B	1.94B	1.06B	1.84B	1.73B	2.46B	1.15B

Revenue & Free Cash Flow

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.