PMTS Analysis — TradeApes

CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS)

Communication Services

$19.30 close · Jul 21, 2026

Above 50 & 200 SMA

52W -5.7% from High

Methodology Breakdown

Methods agree on direction (under/over-valued) but the magnitudes diverge widely. The zone is defensible; the specific dollar isn't.

Method	Value	Role
DCF (Base Case)	$22.07	REFERENCE
DCF (TTM-anchored)	$152.36	REFERENCE
Peer Multiples	$38.35	REFERENCE
Earnings Anchor	$18.60	REFERENCE
Cash Floor	$1.14	REFERENCE

Verdict basis:


              direction_agreement

📈

Undervalued -58.1%

Market cap (228.8M) is 58.1% below the bear-case DCF fair value (545.6M)

Jul 21

Health Score

Out of 100

Mixed

Pillar Scores

Financial Strength 35

Operating Trend 55

Valuation 55

Capital Allocation 55

Risk Management 70

Positives

↑ High FCF yield — above 7%, strong cash return relative to price paid +3.8

↑ Free cash flow positive — business generates real spendable cash +2.5

↑ Strong liquidity — current assets more than 2× current liabilities +1.3

Concerns

↓ High leverage — net debt/EBITDA between 3× and 5× -3.8

↓ Weak interest coverage — earnings barely cover debt service -3.8

↓ Above historical median — trading above its own valuation average -2.5

Signal contribution: +9.7 from strengths -11.1 from concerns

Health Score Trend 8 snapshots

Cross-Check: Greenblatt Magic Formula

✓ Aligned

Earnings Yield

11.6%

Rank 110 / 1256

Return on Capital

45.4%

Rank 583 / 1256

Combined Rank

82th pctl

1256 companies ranked

Based on Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula methodology. Not investment advice.

Financials

TTM Financials

Revenue ?Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months.	567.9M
Gross Profit ?Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency.	173.5M
Operating Income ?Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes.	51.7M
Net Income ?Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue.	12.2M
Free Cash Flow ?Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability.	51.2M
EBITDA ?Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences.	76.3M
Total Debt ?Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk.	276.9M
Cash & Equivalents ?Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion.	19.3M

Valuation

Market Cap	228.8M
Enterprise Value	506.2M
EV / Revenue	0.9x
EV / EBITDA	6.6x
P/E (TTM)	18.7x
Forward P/E (extrapolated)	16.7x
PEG	—
P/FCF	4.5x
FCF Yield	22.4%

EV/EBITDA vs history — 67% percentile (mid-range)

CheapMidExpensive

EV/Sales vs history — 61% percentile (mid-range)

CheapMidExpensive

DCF Fair Value Range (base CAGR: 9.2%)

Bear

$46.01

Base

$66.08

Bull

$91.53

Bear $46 Current $19.30 (below range) Bull $92

Market is pricing in -6.0% FCF growth annually — base model assumes 9.2%

Key Metrics

Gross Margin ?Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better.	30.6%
EBITDA Margin ?EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries.	13.4%
Net Margin ?Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for.	2.2%
FCF Margin ?Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash.	9.0%
Revenue Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong.	15.6%
Net Income Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality.	-35.1%
Piotroski F-Score ?Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed.	6 / 9
Altman Z-Score ?Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies.	2.20

Community Sentiment

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Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q1 '26	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '24	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '24	Q3 '24	Q2 '24
Revenue ?Total quarterly sales from primary business operations.	147.1M	153.1M	138.0M	129.8M	122.8M	125.1M	124.8M	118.8M	111.9M	102.9M	105.9M	115.0M
Gross Profit ?Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold.	44.1M	48.3M	41.0M	40.1M	40.7M	42.6M	44.7M	42.4M	41.5M	35.4M	36.2M	40.8M
Operating Income ?Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT).	11.0M	18.3M	13.0M	9.4M	14.1M	15.9M	17.8M	14.9M	14.1M	10.5M	13.0M	17.5M
Net Income ?Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes.	2.1M	7.4M	2.3M	$518,000	4.8M	6.8M	1.3M	6.0M	5.5M	2.7M	3.9M	6.5M
FCF ?Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures.	10.1M	35.2M	5.3M	$533,000	$292,000	21.6M	11.1M	-6.0M	7.4M	11.4M	12.5M	-$128,000

Revenue & Free Cash Flow

Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band

Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.