PM Analysis — TradeApes

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)

Consumer Defensive

$160.90 close · Apr 09, 2026

≈ Fairly Valued (50/100)

📈

Multiple compressed z = -1.6

EV/EBITDA (14.6×) is 1.6 std deviations below its 2-year average

Apr 09

Health Score

Out of 100

Mixed

Pillar Scores

Financial Strength 65

Operating Trend 60

Valuation 55

Capital Allocation 50

Risk 50

Positives

↑ Net cash position — more cash on hand than total debt +3.8

↑ Free cash flow positive — business generates real spendable cash +2.5

↑ High ROIC — above 20%, excellent return on invested capital +2.5

Concerns

↓ Altman Z-Score in distress zone — elevated bankruptcy risk -3.0

↓ Weak liquidity — current assets below current liabilities -2.5

Signal contribution: +10.1 from strengths -5.5 from concerns

Health Score Trend 8 snapshots

Financials

TTM Financials

Revenue ?Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months.	40.65B
Gross Profit ?Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency.	27.28B
Operating Income ?Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes.	14.89B
Net Income ?Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue.	11.35B
Free Cash Flow ?Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability.	10.66B
EBITDA ?Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences.	16.89B
Total Debt ?Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk.	168.0M
Cash & Equivalents ?Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion.	4.87B

Valuation

Market Cap	250.67B
Enterprise Value	245.97B
EV / Revenue	6.1x
EV / EBITDA	14.6x
P/E (TTM)	22.1x
Forward P/E (extrapolated)	8.7x
PEG	0.1x
P/FCF	23.5x
FCF Yield	4.3%

DCF Fair Value Range (base CAGR: 4.9%)

Bear

$156.00

Base

$178.78

Bull

$206.26

Bear $156 Current $160.90 (in range) Bull $206

Market is pricing in 3.1% FCF growth annually — base model assumes 4.9%

Key Metrics

Gross Margin ?Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better.	67.1%
EBITDA Margin ?EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries.	41.5%
Net Margin ?Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for.	27.9%
FCF Margin ?Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash.	26.2%
Revenue Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong.	7.3%
Net Income Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality.	60.8%
Piotroski F-Score ?Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed.	6 / 9
Altman Z-Score ?Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies.	1.00

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Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '23	Q3 '23	Q2 '23	Q1 '23
Revenue ?Total quarterly sales from primary business operations.	10.36B	10.85B	10.14B	9.30B	9.71B	9.91B	9.47B	8.79B	9.05B	9.14B	8.97B	8.02B
Gross Profit ?Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold.	6.80B	7.36B	6.86B	6.26B	6.28B	6.55B	6.12B	5.60B	5.59B	5.98B	5.74B	4.98B
Operating Income ?Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT).	3.37B	4.26B	3.71B	3.54B	3.26B	3.65B	3.44B	3.05B	2.89B	3.37B	2.57B	2.73B
Net Income ?Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes.	2.14B	3.48B	3.04B	2.69B	-579.0M	3.08B	2.41B	2.15B	2.20B	2.05B	1.57B	2.00B
FCF ?Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures.	11.42B	—	—	-754.0M	10.95B	—	—	-176.0M	9.12B	—	—	-1.23B

Revenue & Free Cash Flow

Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band

Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.