GOOG Analysis — TradeApes

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

Technology IT Services

$335.31 close · Sep 05, 2026

Model Divergence 64 Health · Healthy

Above 200 SMA

52W -16.0% from High

Methodology Breakdown

Mature

The market price on this stock implies growth our normalized base can't support, so we're not putting a single fair-value dollar on it. At today's price the market is implying roughly 50% annual free-cash-flow growth in our DCF — well outside what the normalized base supports. The individual method outputs are shown below for transparency.

Method	Value	Role
DCF (Base Case)	$48.10	COMPUTED
DCF (TTM-anchored)	$40.14	COMPUTED
Peer Multiples	$114.01	COMPUTED
Earnings Power Value	$16.52	COMPUTED
Book Value Anchor	$104.35	COMPUTED
Earnings Anchor	$115.40	COMPUTED
Cash Floor	$13.79	COMPUTED
NAV Anchor	$104.35	COMPUTED

Computed — every method is shown for transparency; none was published as our estimate for this stock.

⚠️

Multiple stretched z = +1.52

EV/EBITDA (28.5×) is 1.52 std deviations above its 2-year average

Jun 01

Health Score

Out of 100

Healthy

Pillar Scores

Financial Strength

Operating Trend

Valuation

Overvalued 38

Capital Allocation

Risk Management

Positives

↑ Altman Z (retained-earnings corrected) +3.5

↑ free-cash-flow margin +2.7

↑ margin expansion +1.8

Concerns

↓ free-cash-flow yield -1.9

↓ debt trend (no impairment data) -0.9

↓ Piotroski F (0–9) -0.6

Signal contribution: +31.0 from strengths -6.3 from concerns

Health Score Trend 9 snapshots

Cross-Check: Greenblatt Magic Formula

✓ Aligned

Earnings Yield

3.8%

Rank 742 / 1256

Return on Capital

124.9%

Rank 230 / 1256

Combined Rank

64th pctl

1256 companies ranked

Based on Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula methodology. Not investment advice.

Financials

TTM Financials

Revenue ?Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months.	445.87B
Gross Profit ?Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency.	—
Operating Income ?Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes.	147.63B
Net Income ?Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue.	244.21B
Free Cash Flow ?Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability.	53.27B
EBITDA ?Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences.	172.87B
Total Debt ?Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk.	100.16B
Cash & Equivalents ?Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion.	55.91B

Valuation

Market Cap	4127.33B
Enterprise Value	4189.62B
EV / Revenue	9.4x
EV / EBITDA	24.2x
P/E (TTM)	16.9x
Forward P/E (extrapolated)	8.0x
PEG	0.1x
P/FCF	77.5x
FCF Yield	1.3%

EV/EBITDA vs history — 53% percentile (mid-range)

CheapMidExpensive

EV/Sales vs history — 56% percentile (mid-range)

CheapMidExpensive

P/Book vs history — 16% percentile (historically cheap)

CheapMidExpensive

DCF Fair Value Range (base CAGR: 16.4%)

Bear

$129.74

Base

$210.62

Bull

$333.46

Bear $130 Current $335.31 (above range) Bull $333

Market is pricing in 24.8% FCF growth annually — base model assumes 16.4%

Key Metrics

Gross Margin ?Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better.	—
EBITDA Margin ?EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries.	38.8%
Net Margin ?Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for.	54.8%
FCF Margin ?Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash.	11.9%
Revenue Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong.	20.1%
Net Income Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality.	111.3%
Piotroski F-Score ?Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed.	4 / 9
Altman Z-Score ?Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies.	3.63

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Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q2 '26	Q1 '26	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '24	Q3 '24	Q2 '24	Q1 '24	Q4 '23	Q3 '23
Revenue ?Total quarterly sales from primary business operations.	119.80B	109.90B	113.83B	102.35B	96.43B	90.23B	96.47B	88.27B	84.74B	80.54B	86.31B	76.69B
Gross Profit ?Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold.	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating Income ?Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT).	40.77B	39.70B	35.93B	31.23B	31.27B	30.61B	30.97B	28.52B	27.43B	25.47B	23.70B	21.34B
Net Income ?Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes.	112.19B	62.58B	34.46B	34.98B	28.20B	34.54B	26.54B	26.30B	23.62B	23.66B	20.69B	19.69B
FCF ?Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures.	-5.86B	10.12B	24.55B	24.46B	5.30B	18.95B	24.84B	17.64B	13.45B	16.84B	7.90B	22.60B

Revenue & Free Cash Flow

Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band

Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.