KHC Analysis — TradeApes

Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)

Consumer Defensive

$24.85 close · Sep 05, 2026

Undervalued (High) Est. $46.41 49 Health · Mixed

Above 200 SMA

52W -10.0% from High

Methodology Breakdown

Mature

Our Estimate

$46.41 High confidence

Equal-weighted blend of 2 independent methods, which span $42.42–$50.40. Current price $25.67 is below our estimate.

Method	Value	Role
DCF (Base Case)	$50.40	IN ESTIMATE
DCF (TTM-anchored)	$50.40	IN ESTIMATE
Peer Multiples	$42.42	IN ESTIMATE
Earnings Power Value	$44.25	CROSS-CHECK
Book Value Anchor	$61.38	CROSS-CHECK
Earnings Anchor	$20.55	CROSS-CHECK
Cash Floor	$1.58	CROSS-CHECK
NAV Anchor	$61.38	CROSS-CHECK

In estimate — combined into our number · Cross-check — computed for context, not counted

📈

Undervalued -49.3%

Market cap (29.47B) is 49.3% below the bear-case DCF fair value (58.14B)

Sep 05

Health Score

Out of 100

Mixed

Pillar Scores

Financial Strength

Operating Trend

Valuation

Fair value 64

Capital Allocation

Risk Management

Positives

↑ free-cash-flow yield +4.3

↑ free-cash-flow margin +3.4

↑ beta + annualized volatility +2.1

Concerns

↓ margin expansion -2.2

↓ operating-margin trend + inflection -5.5

↓ earnings yield (absolute) -2.4

Signal contribution: +19.6 from strengths -20.2 from concerns

Health Score Trend 9 snapshots

Financials

TTM Financials

Revenue ?Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months.	24.90B
Gross Profit ?Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency.	8.31B
Operating Income ?Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes.	-3.18B
Net Income ?Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue.	-3.40B
Free Cash Flow ?Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability.	3.82B
EBITDA ?Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences.	-2.18B
Total Debt ?Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk.	—
Cash & Equivalents ?Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion.	2.42B

Valuation

Market Cap	29.47B
Enterprise Value	27.61B
EV / Revenue	1.1x
EV / EBITDA	-12.7x
P/E (TTM)	-8.7x
Forward P/E	—
PEG	—
P/FCF	7.7x
FCF Yield	13.0%

EV/Sales vs history — 47% percentile (mid-range)

CheapMidExpensive

P/Book vs history — 60% percentile (mid-range)

CheapMidExpensive

DCF Fair Value Range (base CAGR: 2.7%)

Bear

$49.02

Base

$51.86

Bull

$55.59

Bear $49 Current $24.85 (below range) Bull $56

Market is pricing in -14.2% FCF growth annually — base model assumes 2.7%

Key Metrics

Gross Margin ?Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better.	33.4%
EBITDA Margin ?EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries.	-8.7%
Net Margin ?Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for.	-13.6%
FCF Margin ?Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash.	15.3%
Revenue Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong.	-1.6%
Net Income Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality.	35.6%
Piotroski F-Score ?Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed.	4 / 9
Altman Z-Score ?Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies.	1.48

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Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q2 '26	Q1 '26	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '25	Q3 '24
Revenue ?Total quarterly sales from primary business operations.	6.26B	6.05B	6.35B	6.24B	6.35B	6.00B	6.58B	6.38B	6.48B	6.41B	6.86B	6.57B
Gross Profit ?Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold.	2.03B	2.22B	2.07B	1.99B	2.18B	2.06B	2.25B	2.19B	2.29B	2.24B	2.32B	2.24B
Operating Income ?Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT).	-6.43B	1.15B	1.08B	1.03B	-7.97B	1.20B	-40.0M	-101.0M	522.0M	1.30B	1.30B	653.0M
Net Income ?Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes.	-5.46B	798.0M	651.0M	615.0M	-7.82B	712.0M	2.13B	-290.0M	102.0M	801.0M	757.0M	262.0M
FCF ?Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures.	893.0M	766.0M	1.17B	986.0M	1.02B	482.0M	1.14B	849.0M	693.0M	477.0M	1.12B	765.0M

Revenue & Free Cash Flow

Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band

Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.