Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Consumer Cyclical
Auto Manufacturers
Methodology Breakdown
MatureOur valuation methods land implausibly far from the market price on this stock — a sign the standard models don't fit its profile, most often a fast-growing business with little or no GAAP earnings (the methods can't capture the growth), or a highly cyclical one whose cash flows swing sharply. Rather than publish a misleading number we're not putting a single fair-value estimate on it; the individual method outputs are below.
| Method | Value | Role |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base Case) | $8.71 | COMPUTED |
| DCF (TTM-anchored) | $6.68 | COMPUTED |
| Peer Multiples | $32.35 | COMPUTED |
| Earnings Power Value | $4.59 | COMPUTED |
| Book Value Anchor | $42.99 | COMPUTED |
| Earnings Anchor | $29.60 | COMPUTED |
| Cash Floor | $8.61 | COMPUTED |
| NAV Anchor | $42.99 | COMPUTED |
Computed — every method is shown for transparency; none was published as our estimate for this stock.
Health Score
Health Score
48
Out of 100
Mixed
Pillar Scores
Financial Strength
76
Operating Trend
37
Valuation
Overvalued
18
Capital Allocation
40
Risk Management
74
Positives
↑
Altman Z (retained-earnings corrected)
+3.5
↑
net debt / EBITDA
+4.5
↑
EBIT / interest
+3.5
Concerns
↓
ev_to_ebitda vs sector peers
-7.7
↓
margin expansion
-1.4
↓
earnings yield (absolute)
-1.6
Signal contribution:
+21.0 from strengths
-21.9 from concerns
Health Score Trend
10 snapshots
Cross-Check: Greenblatt Magic Formula
⚠ Divergent
Earnings Yield
0.3%
Rank 1214 / 1256
Return on Capital
11.8%
Rank 1073 / 1256
Combined Rank
8th pctl
1256 companies ranked
Our composite ranks this company higher than the Magic Formula. This is likely because our model credits growth trajectory, improving margins, or momentum signals that the Magic Formula's static snapshot does not capture.
Based on Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula methodology. Not investment advice.
Financials
TTM Financials
| Revenue Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months. | 103.62B |
| Gross Profit Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency. | 19.53B |
| Operating Income Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes. | 4.37B |
| Net Income Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue. | 3.80B |
| Free Cash Flow Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability. | 5.76B |
| EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences. | 9.81B |
| Total Debt Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk. | 9.06B |
| Cash & Equivalents Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion. | 15.22B |
Valuation
| Market Cap | 1302.93B |
| Enterprise Value | 1303.51B |
| EV / Revenue | 12.6x |
| EV / EBITDA | 132.8x |
| P/E (TTM) | 342.5x |
| Forward P/E (extrapolated) | 273.9x |
| PEG | — |
| P/FCF | 226.1x |
| FCF Yield | 0.4% |
EV/EBITDA vs history — 62% percentile
(mid-range)
CheapMidExpensive
EV/Sales vs history — 46% percentile
(mid-range)
CheapMidExpensive
P/Book vs history — 40% percentile
(mid-range)
CheapMidExpensive
DCF Fair Value Range
(base CAGR: 33.9%)
Bear
$83.28
Base
$206.28
Bull
$472.06
Bear $83
Current $368.06
(in range)
Bull $472
Market is pricing in
45.6% FCF growth
annually — base model assumes 33.9%
Key Metrics
| Gross Margin Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better. | 18.9% |
| EBITDA Margin EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries. | 9.5% |
| Net Margin Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for. | 3.7% |
| FCF Margin Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash. | 5.6% |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong. | 11.8% |
| Net Income Growth (YoY) Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality. | -35.3% |
| Piotroski F-Score Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed. | 4 / 9 |
| Altman Z-Score Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies. | 2.74 |
Community Sentiment
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Quarterly Financials
| Metric | Q2 '26 | Q1 '26 | Q4 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q1 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q2 '24 | Q1 '24 | Q4 '23 | Q3 '23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Total quarterly sales from primary business operations. | 28.24B | 22.39B | 24.90B | 28.10B | 22.50B | 19.34B | 25.71B | 25.18B | 25.50B | 21.30B | 25.17B | 23.35B |
| Gross Profit Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold. | 4.75B | 4.72B | 5.01B | 5.05B | 3.88B | 3.15B | 4.18B | 5.00B | 4.58B | 3.70B | 4.44B | 4.18B |
| Operating Income Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT). | 398.0M | 941.0M | 1.41B | 1.62B | 923.0M | 399.0M | 1.58B | 2.72B | 1.61B | 1.17B | 2.06B | 1.76B |
| Net Income Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes. | 1.11B | 477.0M | 840.0M | 1.37B | 1.17B | 409.0M | 2.13B | 2.17B | 1.40B | 1.39B | 7.91B | 1.85B |
| FCF Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures. | -1.09B | 1.44B | 1.42B | 3.99B | 146.0M | 664.0M | 2.03B | 2.74B | 1.34B | -2.54B | 2.06B | 848.0M |
Revenue & Free Cash Flow
Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band
Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute
investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data.
Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
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