MO Analysis — TradeApes

ALTRIA GROUP, INC. (MO)

About ALTRIA GROUP, INC. →

Consumer Defensive

$68.88 close · Sep 05, 2026

Undervalued (Low) Est. $78.64–$133.38 68 Health · Healthy

Above 200 SMA

52W -8.1% from High

Methodology Breakdown

Mature

Our Estimate

$78.64 – $133.38 Wide range

Low confidence: our methods span $78.64–$133.38, so we lean on the range rather than a single number. Today's price $68.48 sits below it.

Method	Value	Role
DCF (Base Case)	$133.38	IN ESTIMATE
DCF (TTM-anchored)	$133.38	IN ESTIMATE
Peer Multiples	$78.64	IN ESTIMATE
Earnings Power Value	$77.88	CROSS-CHECK
Book Value Anchor	$3.44	CROSS-CHECK
Earnings Anchor	$57.08	CROSS-CHECK
Cash Floor	$0.99	CROSS-CHECK
NAV Anchor	$3.44	CROSS-CHECK

In estimate — combined into our number · Cross-check — computed for context, not counted

📈

Multiple compressed z = -1.58

EV/EBITDA (11.5×) is 1.58 std deviations below its 2-year average

May 20

Health Score

Out of 100

Healthy

Pillar Scores

Financial Strength

Operating Trend

Valuation

Fair value 57

Capital Allocation

Risk Management

Positives

↑ free-cash-flow margin +4.0

↑ corrected ROIC (NOPAT / invested capital) +5.0

↑ ROIC level + trend +3.3

Concerns

↓ current + quick ratio -2.1

↓ revenue YoY + 3yr CAGR -3.2

↓ multiple vs own 5-yr history -1.1

Signal contribution: +33.4 from strengths -6.4 from concerns

Health Score Trend 9 snapshots

Financials

TTM Financials

Revenue ?Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months.	23.46B
Gross Profit ?Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency.	14.77B
Operating Income ?Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes.	10.97B
Net Income ?Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue.	7.97B
Free Cash Flow ?Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability.	9.11B
EBITDA ?Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences.	11.22B
Total Debt ?Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk.	22.89B
Cash & Equivalents ?Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion.	2.37B

Valuation

Market Cap	115.03B
Enterprise Value	135.56B
EV / Revenue	5.8x
EV / EBITDA	12.1x
P/E (TTM)	14.4x
Forward P/E (extrapolated)	10.2x
PEG	—
P/FCF	12.6x
FCF Yield	7.9%

EV/EBITDA vs history — 61% percentile (mid-range)

CheapMidExpensive

EV/Sales vs history — 65% percentile (mid-range)

CheapMidExpensive

DCF Fair Value Range (base CAGR: -0.5%)

Bear

$77.17

Base

$75.18

Bull

$74.21

Bear $77 Current $68.88 (below range) Bull $74

Market is pricing in -2.2% FCF growth annually — base model assumes -0.5%

Key Metrics

Gross Margin ?Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better.	63.0%
EBITDA Margin ?EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries.	47.8%
Net Margin ?Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for.	34.0%
FCF Margin ?Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash.	38.8%
Revenue Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong.	-0.6%
Net Income Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality.	-9.3%
Piotroski F-Score ?Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed.	7 / 9
Altman Z-Score ?Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies.	1.50

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Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q2 '26	Q1 '26	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '23	Q3 '23
Revenue ?Total quarterly sales from primary business operations.	6.11B	5.43B	5.85B	6.07B	6.10B	5.26B	5.97B	6.26B	6.21B	5.58B	5.98B	6.28B
Gross Profit ?Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold.	3.82B	3.51B	3.63B	3.81B	3.85B	3.25B	3.60B	3.81B	3.68B	3.28B	3.50B	3.70B
Operating Income ?Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT).	3.14B	2.96B	1.65B	3.23B	3.23B	1.79B	2.88B	3.15B	2.53B	2.67B	2.80B	3.09B
Net Income ?Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes.	2.30B	2.18B	1.12B	2.38B	2.38B	1.08B	3.04B	2.29B	3.80B	2.13B	2.06B	2.17B
FCF ?Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures.	662.0M	2.23B	3.18B	3.04B	173.0M	2.68B	3.29B	2.58B	-104.0M	2.84B	3.17B	2.91B

Revenue & Free Cash Flow

Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band

Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.