UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC (UPS)
Industrials
$100.74
close · Apr 09, 2026
≈
Fairly Valued
(54/100)
⚠️
Apr 09
Multiple stretched
z = +1.78
EV/EBITDA (9.6×) is 1.78 std deviations above its 2-year average
⚠️
Apr 09
Overvalued
+58.5%
Market cap (85.63B) is 58.5% above the bull-case DCF fair value (54.03B)
Health Score
Health Score
59
Out of 100
Mixed
Pillar Scores
Financial Strength
60
Operating Trend
55
Valuation
55
Capital Allocation
55
Risk
80
Positives
↑
Free cash flow positive — business generates real spendable cash
+2.5
↑
Decent ROIC — 10–20%, solid return on invested capital
+1.3
↑
Decent FCF yield — 4–7%, reasonable cash return on price paid
+1.3
Concerns
Signal contribution:
+5.9 from strengths
Health Score Trend
8 snapshots
Financials
TTM Financials
| Revenue Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months. | 88.66B |
| Gross Profit Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency. | — |
| Operating Income Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes. | 7.87B |
| Net Income Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue. | 5.57B |
| Free Cash Flow Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability. | 4.77B |
| EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences. | 10.87B |
| Total Debt Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk. | 24.19B |
| Cash & Equivalents Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion. | 5.89B |
Valuation
| Market Cap | 85.63B |
| Enterprise Value | 103.93B |
| EV / Revenue | 1.2x |
| EV / EBITDA | 9.6x |
| P/E (TTM) | 15.4x |
| Forward P/E (extrapolated) | 9.5x |
| PEG | — |
| P/FCF | 18.0x |
| FCF Yield | 5.6% |
DCF Fair Value Range
(base CAGR: -1.1%)
Bear
$70.37
Base
$65.78
Bull
$63.56
Bear $70
Current $100.74
(above range)
Bull $64
Market is pricing in
5.6% FCF growth
annually — base model assumes -1.1%
Key Metrics
| Gross Margin Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better. | — |
| EBITDA Margin EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries. | 12.3% |
| Net Margin Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for. | 6.3% |
| FCF Margin Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash. | 5.4% |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong. | -2.6% |
| Net Income Growth (YoY) Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality. | -3.6% |
| Piotroski F-Score Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed. | 5 / 9 |
| Altman Z-Score Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies. | — |
Community Sentiment
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Quarterly Financials
| Metric | Q4 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q1 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q3 '24 | Q2 '24 | Q1 '24 | Q4 '23 | Q3 '23 | Q2 '23 | Q1 '24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Total quarterly sales from primary business operations. | 24.48B | 21.42B | 21.22B | 21.55B | 25.30B | 22.25B | 21.82B | 21.71B | 24.92B | 21.06B | 22.06B | 22.93B |
| Gross Profit Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold. | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT). | 2.58B | 1.80B | 1.82B | 1.67B | 2.93B | 1.99B | 1.94B | 1.61B | 2.48B | 1.34B | 2.78B | 2.54B |
| Net Income Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes. | 1.79B | 1.31B | 1.28B | 1.19B | 1.72B | 1.54B | 1.41B | 1.11B | 1.61B | 1.13B | 2.08B | 1.90B |
| FCF Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures. | 3.32B | — | — | 1.44B | 3.93B | — | — | 2.28B | 3.33B | — | — | 1.75B |
Revenue & Free Cash Flow
Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band
Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute
investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data.
Always do your own research before making investment decisions.