IBM Analysis — TradeApes

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP (IBM)

Technology Computer Hardware

$234.89 close · Sep 05, 2026

Overvalued (Low) Est. $66.42–$178.01 68 Health · Healthy

Below 50 & 200 SMA

52W -28.7% from High

Methodology Breakdown

Mature

Our Estimate

$66.42 – $178.01 Wide range

Low confidence: our methods span $66.42–$178.01, so we lean on the range rather than a single number. Today's price $233.87 sits above it.

Method	Value	Role
DCF (Base Case)	$182.39	IN ESTIMATE
DCF (TTM-anchored)	$173.63	IN ESTIMATE
Peer Multiples	$66.42	IN ESTIMATE
Earnings Power Value	$120.25	CROSS-CHECK
Book Value Anchor	$113.77	CROSS-CHECK
Earnings Anchor	$200.84	CROSS-CHECK
Cash Floor	$5.27	CROSS-CHECK
NAV Anchor	$113.77	CROSS-CHECK

In estimate — combined into our number · Cross-check — computed for context, not counted

The methods agree on direction (under- or over-valued) but their dollar values diverge, so we show a range rather than one number.

⚠️

Overvalued +24.8%

Market cap (195.92B) is 24.8% above the bull-case DCF fair value (157.05B)

Jul 23

Health Score

Out of 100

Healthy

Pillar Scores

Financial Strength

Operating Trend

Valuation

Undervalued 78

Capital Allocation

Risk Management

Positives

↑ free-cash-flow margin +3.7

↑ PEG ratio +3.0

↑ FCF margin + growth +3.7

Concerns

↓ current + quick ratio -1.1

↓ Piotroski F (0–9) -0.7

↓ revenue YoY + 3yr CAGR -1.4

Signal contribution: +20.3 from strengths -3.2 from concerns

Health Score Trend 9 snapshots

Financials

TTM Financials

Revenue ?Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months.	69.10B
Gross Profit ?Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency.	40.15B
Operating Income ?Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes.	—
Net Income ?Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue.	10.73B
Free Cash Flow ?Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability.	13.79B
EBITDA ?Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences.	—
Total Debt ?Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk.	61.99B
Cash & Equivalents ?Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion.	7.17B

Valuation

Market Cap	223.91B
Enterprise Value	282.01B
EV / Revenue	4.1x
EV / EBITDA	—
P/E (TTM)	20.9x
Forward P/E (extrapolated)	9.5x
PEG	0.1x
P/FCF	16.2x
FCF Yield	6.2%

EV/Sales vs history — 33% percentile (mid-range)

CheapMidExpensive

P/Book vs history — 33% percentile (mid-range)

CheapMidExpensive

DCF Fair Value Range (base CAGR: 0.3%)

Bear

$230.21

Base

$232.22

Bull

$234.23

Bear $230 Current $234.89 (above range) Bull $234

Market is pricing in 0.5% FCF growth annually — base model assumes 0.3%

Key Metrics

Gross Margin ?Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better.	58.1%
EBITDA Margin ?EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries.	—
Net Margin ?Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for.	15.5%
FCF Margin ?Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash.	20.0%
Revenue Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong.	7.9%
Net Income Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality.	83.9%
Piotroski F-Score ?Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed.	6 / 9
Altman Z-Score ?Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies.	—

Community Sentiment

Not enough ratings yet.
Be the first to rate this company below.

Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q2 '26	Q1 '26	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '25	Q3 '24
Revenue ?Total quarterly sales from primary business operations.	17.16B	15.92B	19.69B	16.33B	16.98B	14.54B	17.55B	14.97B	15.77B	14.46B	17.38B	14.75B
Gross Profit ?Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold.	9.91B	8.95B	11.93B	9.36B	9.98B	8.03B	10.44B	8.42B	8.95B	7.74B	10.27B	8.02B
Operating Income ?Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT).	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net Income ?Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes.	2.17B	1.22B	5.60B	1.74B	2.19B	1.06B	2.91B	-330.0M	1.83B	1.61B	3.29B	1.70B
FCF ?Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures.	2.37B	4.94B	3.66B	2.83B	1.49B	4.13B	4.03B	2.60B	1.85B	3.93B	4.16B	2.78B

Revenue & Free Cash Flow

Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band

Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.

Want to track IBM in your own watchlist?

Create a free account to save companies, refresh fundamentals on demand, and record your investment thesis.

Get stocks like IBM in your inbox every Sunday

11 sector-leading stocks delivered to your inbox every Sunday. Free.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.