IBM Analysis — TradeApes

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP (IBM)

Technology Computer Hardware

$213.00 close · Jul 21, 2026

Below 50 & 200 SMA

52W -35.9% from High

Methodology Breakdown

Triangulated across multiple voting methods. The breakdown below shows each method's output and which ones voted on the final verdict.

Method	Value	Role
DCF (Base Case)	$210.45	REFERENCE
DCF (TTM-anchored)	$200.60	REFERENCE
Peer Multiples	$93.42	REFERENCE
Earnings Power Value	$128.94	REFERENCE
Book Value Anchor	$114.49	REFERENCE
Earnings Anchor	$179.30	REFERENCE
Cash Floor	$7.95	REFERENCE
NAV Anchor	$114.49	REFERENCE

Triangulation spread: 58% across voting methods.

⚠️

Overvalued +35.1%

Market cap (276.34B) is 35.1% above the bull-case DCF fair value (204.51B)

Jul 14

Health Score

Out of 100

Mixed

Pillar Scores

Financial Strength 45

Operating Trend 50

Valuation 55

Capital Allocation 55

Risk Management 80

Positives

↑ Free cash flow positive — business generates real spendable cash +2.5

↑ Decent FCF yield — 4–7%, reasonable cash return on price paid +1.3

↑ Low stock compensation — SBC below 3% of revenue +0.8

Concerns

↓ Weak liquidity — current assets below current liabilities -2.5

↓ Piotroski F-Score 0–3 — multiple financial weakness signals -1.3

Signal contribution: +4.6 from strengths -3.8 from concerns

Health Score Trend 8 snapshots

Financials

TTM Financials

Revenue ?Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months.	68.91B
Gross Profit ?Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency.	40.22B
Operating Income ?Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes.	—
Net Income ?Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue.	10.75B
Free Cash Flow ?Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability.	12.91B
EBITDA ?Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences.	—
Total Debt ?Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk.	66.36B
Cash & Equivalents ?Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion.	10.82B

Valuation

Market Cap	202.80B
Enterprise Value	261.79B
EV / Revenue	3.8x
EV / EBITDA	—
P/E (TTM)	18.9x
Forward P/E (extrapolated)	8.6x
PEG	0.1x
P/FCF	15.7x
FCF Yield	6.4%

EV/Sales vs history — 8% percentile (historically cheap)

CheapMidExpensive

P/Book vs history — 8% percentile (historically cheap)

CheapMidExpensive

DCF Fair Value Range (base CAGR: 0.3%)

Bear

$211.02

Base

$212.90

Bull

$214.79

Bear $211 Current $213.00 (in range) Bull $215

Market is pricing in 0.3% FCF growth annually — base model assumes 0.3%

Key Metrics

Gross Margin ?Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better.	58.4%
EBITDA Margin ?EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries.	—
Net Margin ?Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for.	15.6%
FCF Margin ?Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash.	18.7%
Revenue Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong.	9.7%
Net Income Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality.	96.5%
Piotroski F-Score ?Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed.	6 / 9
Altman Z-Score ?Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies.	—

Community Sentiment

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Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q1 '26	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '25	Q3 '24	Q2 '24
Revenue ?Total quarterly sales from primary business operations.	15.92B	19.69B	16.33B	16.98B	14.54B	17.55B	14.97B	15.77B	14.46B	17.38B	14.75B	15.48B
Gross Profit ?Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold.	8.95B	11.93B	9.36B	9.98B	8.03B	10.44B	8.42B	8.95B	7.74B	10.27B	8.02B	8.50B
Operating Income ?Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT).	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net Income ?Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes.	1.22B	5.60B	1.74B	2.19B	1.06B	2.91B	-330.0M	1.83B	1.61B	3.29B	1.70B	1.58B
FCF ?Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures.	4.94B	3.66B	2.83B	1.49B	4.13B	4.03B	2.60B	1.85B	3.93B	4.16B	2.78B	2.27B

Revenue & Free Cash Flow

Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band

Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.