AAPL Analysis — TradeApes

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Technology Computer Hardware

$319.97 close · Sep 05, 2026

Model Divergence 65 Health · Healthy

Above 50 & 200 SMA

52W -5.9% from High

Methodology Breakdown

Mature

The market price on this stock implies growth our normalized base can't support, so we're not putting a single fair-value dollar on it. At today's price the market is implying roughly 50% annual free-cash-flow growth in our DCF — well outside what the normalized base supports. The individual method outputs are shown below for transparency.

Method	Value	Role
DCF (Base Case)	$73.80	COMPUTED
DCF (TTM-anchored)	$86.92	COMPUTED
Peer Multiples	$156.28	COMPUTED
Earnings Power Value	$62.55	COMPUTED
Book Value Anchor	$23.00	COMPUTED
Earnings Anchor	$244.30	COMPUTED
Cash Floor	$6.97	COMPUTED
NAV Anchor	$23.00	COMPUTED

Computed — every method is shown for transparency; none was published as our estimate for this stock.

Health Score

Out of 100

Healthy

Pillar Scores

Financial Strength

Operating Trend

Valuation

Overvalued 35

Capital Allocation

Risk Management

Positives

↑ corrected ROIC (NOPAT / invested capital) +5.5

↑ free-cash-flow margin +3.5

↑ ROIC level + trend +3.5

Concerns

↓ multiple vs own 5-yr history -1.6

↓ ev_to_ebitda vs sector peers -2.6

↓ revenue YoY + 3yr CAGR -2.2

Signal contribution: +32.8 from strengths -7.0 from concerns

Health Score Trend 9 snapshots

Financials

TTM Financials

Revenue ?Total sales generated from the company's primary business activities over the trailing twelve months.	466.82B
Gross Profit ?Revenue minus cost of goods sold. What remains before operating expenses — reflects pricing power and production efficiency.	227.12B
Operating Income ?Profit from core business operations after all operating expenses (EBIT). Excludes interest and taxes.	154.86B
Net Income ?Bottom-line profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted from revenue.	128.93B
Free Cash Flow ?Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The actual cash the business generates after maintaining its assets — the truest measure of profitability.	136.68B
EBITDA ?Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. A proxy for operating cash earnings that strips out accounting and financing differences.	167.96B
Total Debt ?Combined short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt obligations. Compare against cash and earnings to gauge leverage risk.	82.35B
Cash & Equivalents ?Highly liquid assets on hand — cash, money market funds, and short-term securities. The company's immediate financial cushion.	39.54B

Valuation

Market Cap	4708.25B
Enterprise Value	4763.55B
EV / Revenue	10.2x
EV / EBITDA	28.4x
P/E (TTM)	36.5x
Forward P/E (extrapolated)	18.2x
PEG	0.6x
P/FCF	34.4x
FCF Yield	2.9%

EV/EBITDA vs history — 69% percentile (historically expensive)

CheapMidExpensive

EV/Sales vs history — 78% percentile (historically expensive)

CheapMidExpensive

P/Book vs history — 41% percentile (mid-range)

CheapMidExpensive

DCF Fair Value Range (base CAGR: 17.4%)

Bear

$294.03

Base

$485.55

Bull

$782.96

Bear $294 Current $319.97 (in range) Bull $783

Market is pricing in 10.2% FCF growth annually — base model assumes 17.4%

Key Metrics

Gross Margin ?Gross profit as a % of revenue. Measures how efficiently the company produces its goods or services — higher is better.	48.7%
EBITDA Margin ?EBITDA as a % of revenue. Shows core operating profitability before accounting adjustments — useful for comparing across industries.	36.0%
Net Margin ?Net income as a % of revenue. The ultimate measure of overall profitability after every expense, interest payment, and tax is accounted for.	27.6%
FCF Margin ?Free cash flow as a % of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar of revenue converts into real, spendable cash.	29.3%
Revenue Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in total revenue. Measures business momentum — sustained growth above 15% is typically considered strong.	14.2%
Net Income Growth (YoY) ?Year-over-year change in net income. Shows whether profits are growing faster or slower than revenue — a key indicator of improving or deteriorating quality.	29.9%
Piotroski F-Score ?Score from 0–9 measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals. 8–9 = strong, 0–2 = distressed.	8 / 9
Altman Z-Score ?Bankruptcy risk model. Above 2.99 = safe zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, below 1.81 = distress signal. Most useful for manufacturing companies.	3.18

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Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q3 '26	Q2 '26	Q1 '26	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '26	Q4 '25	Q3 '25	Q2 '25	Q1 '25	Q4 '23
Revenue ?Total quarterly sales from primary business operations.	109.42B	111.18B	143.76B	102.47B	94.04B	95.36B	124.30B	94.93B	85.78B	90.75B	119.58B	—
Gross Profit ?Quarterly revenue minus cost of goods sold.	54.77B	54.78B	69.23B	48.34B	43.72B	44.87B	58.28B	43.88B	39.68B	42.27B	54.86B	—
Operating Income ?Quarterly profit from core operations before interest and taxes (EBIT).	35.70B	35.89B	50.85B	32.43B	28.20B	29.59B	42.83B	29.59B	25.35B	27.90B	40.37B	—
Net Income ?Quarterly bottom-line profit after all expenses and taxes.	29.79B	29.58B	42.10B	27.47B	23.43B	24.78B	36.33B	14.74B	21.45B	23.64B	33.92B	—
FCF ?Quarterly free cash flow: operating cash minus capital expenditures.	31.91B	26.73B	51.55B	26.49B	24.41B	20.88B	27.00B	23.90B	26.71B	20.69B	37.50B	—

Revenue & Free Cash Flow

Market Cap vs. DCF Fair Value Band

Shaded region = bear-to-bull DCF range. Line = actual market cap.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scores and valuations are derived from SEC filings and publicly available data. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.